Still looking for those big home runs, the industry will be a little more patient at the plate this year.

Both retailers and licensees are likely to be as cautious this year as last when sizing up new properties. Unlike Reggie Jackson, whose whirlwind whiffs far outnumbered his home run production, the industry will take a more conservative approach to this year's selection of properties.

It's a stance that mirrors that of last year and will buttress the nostalgic tilt of the entertainment biz. Just look at the film release schedule. The wave of classic properties, which includes Spider-Man, Star Wars: Attack of the Clones and Scooby-Doo, is balanced by proven sluggers, such as Powerpuff Girls and Stuart Little 2. A winning track record is not just a nicety. It's mandatory.

"With a one-off movie, the window is very short," says Holly Stein, Hit Entertainment's senior vice president of global consumer products. "Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings have a continuing program." Sony's partners have had good sell-in for Spider-Man, Men in Black II and Stuart Little 2 merchandise, says Al Ovadia, executive vice president of Sony Pictures Consumer Products, because of the TV series slated to follow each of the films.

Another factor pushing the return to the modern classics, says Gullane's senior vice president, consumer products, David Jacobs, is the cost of launching a property. "It's astronomical compared to the possible return." This year, he concludes, we will see a conservative market centered on core properties.

Licensors and licensees alike need to look carefully at each property to determine the appropriate products, Stein says. Criteria include innovative product and a good mix of SKUs. Additionally, products should address key categories within major supercategories and target the relevant age demographic.

While there may be no de facto recipe for success, there are a few crucial ingredients. One, say Stein, Jacobs and others, is a broadcast partner. Although 57-year-old Thomas the Tank Engine won't have television presence in the United States this year, Jacobs said he would definitely pursue it if he were launching the property. "It's very competitive," he says about the prospect of a new launch. Stein recommends partnering with a key driver licensee. That could be a major toy manufacturer or a major retailer. Thomas' key driver, for example, is home video. Gullane has been introducing two to three titles per year. The objective, says Peter Byrne, executive vice president of Fox L&M, "is not to bring in 25 toy manufacturers. Look at the depth of a category rather than breadth of SKUs."

With a finite amount of shelf space, there will be a finite number of properties that will resonate, David Imhoff says. Imhoff, New Line's executive vice president of worldwide licensing and merchandising, is riding high off the holiday success of Lord of the Rings. "There used to be many small properties that would be successful in a few categories. (Now, the industry goes) after properties with the biggest installed base." He believes retailers will be taking a wait-and-see approach. (Although their hopes are buoyed by the recent successes of Monsters, Inc., Rings and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, notes LIMA President Charles Riotto.) "The checklist retailers must fill before they say 'yes' to a property has lengthened," Imhoff adds.

Perhaps this checklist is shorter for Marvel Comics' line-up. "We sell product year in and out on these characters," says Russ Brown, Marvel's senior vice president, consumer products, promotions and media sales. "We don't have as much guess work." The question is about managing expectations, and Brown's expectations are high: "It's not whether (the film) will increase the business; it's how high it will increase the business." Marvel and Toy Biz are heavily behind the Spider-Man and Friends preschool line, which, according to Toy Biz's vice president of marketing, Kathryn Maciel, was suggested by a retailer. "The preschool market is one—if not the only—hot market," Brown says.

Opinions differ regarding growth categories in 2002, but several crop up more than once. Industry experts told PLAYTHINGS they expect toys, video games, preschool lines and home furnishings to lead the way. Ovadia also points to wireless technology, especially for Java-based games, and gambling as growth outlets for licensed properties. Branded slot machines, he says, have done well because they attract people looking for a familiar name, face or iconography.

Gullane, meanwhile, is eyeing opportunities to develop the parent-child relationship. This year, Jacobs wants to expand the number of ways families experience Thomas. Parents tend to network with other parents and parents-to-be, and Thomas play days at Zany Brainy and FAO stores have been successful in bringing this group (and their kids) together. Gullane, Jacobs says, is building a "shared family experience around the property." It's this blend of a classic property with promotions and select product categories that Gullane hopes will reap a home run of its own.