Cliff Annicelli

Retail Sales' Silver Lining?

The U.S. Census Bureau today announced bad news from the nation’s retailers: advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October were down a record 2.8 percent from September to $363.7 billion and off 4 percent from October 2007.

It was the overall retail industry’s worst monthly drop since falling 2.65 percent in November 2001, a stall attributed to anxieties after that year’s terrorist attacks.

Removing food service figures from the tallied showed that retail trade sales were even worse—down 3.1 percent in October from September 2008, and off 5 percent versus October 2007. Particularly hard hit were motor vehicle and auto parts dealers, with combined sales down 23.4 percent from October 2007, and furniture and home furnishings stores, where sales slipped 13.5 percent.

There’s a silver lining, though. Toys may not have been part of the overall economy's retail sales free fall.

In addition to the October “Advance Monthly Retail Sales” figures cited above, the Census Bureau today also released finalized monthly sales figures for September. They showed that September 2008 retail sales at “hobby, toy and games stores” were up 5.2 percent, to $1.23 billion, compared to September 2007.

The September data also showed that year-to-date retail sales at hobby, toy and game stores were up 9.6 percent to $11.1 billion through September 2008 compared to the same point in 2007. 

In fact, according to the Census Bureau, sales at hobby, toy and game stores in 2008 have been up every month this year compared to 2007.

That’s certainly good news. And it could get even better. Finalized October figures from the feds won’t be available until early December, but considering that most holiday toy price cut campaigns hadn’t yet kicked in at the nation’s major toy retailers in September, it’s reasonable to assume even better results to come a month from now when October figures are released reflecting the full force of the industry’s shop-early efforts.

It’s enough to make me think that maybe there really is something to be said for the old saw that the toy business is recession proof—at least as long as you lump all of children’s entertainment (video games, traditional hobbies, etc.) into one big, happy bunch. It's gonna be fun to watch. Stay tuned.

Posted by Cliff Annicelli on November 14, 2008 | Comments (1)