Optimistic in the Toy Industry -
I think there are reasons for optimism, firstly here are 10 reasons for the general economy; and then a few more for the toy industry in particular.

1) The internet has changed everything, so comparisons to 1929 and 1983, do not apply. People and jobs can find each other much more quickly than they did even 10 years ago. Entrepreneurs of all means can find capital and market their ideas more quickly and cheaply than ever before. It is much easier to start a business on a shoestring than it was 10 years ago.

2) The US will bounce back first, because the transparency and regulatory structures are still strongest in the world, and the US dollar is still the benchmark currency of the world.

3) Several small but rapid rebounds will occur, and investors will want to be a part of those surges. So a lot of money that is sitting on the sidelines will jump into the market when the signs of recovery start appearing. Millions of day traders around the world will be very quick to ride the updraft. The bubbles are dead, long live the next bubble!

4) People are rethinking their priorities and appreciating other things besides their 401K statements. A return to core values, core investment spending and saving is good in the long run.

5) The gap between the rich and the poor has narrowed by about 40% in the last 6 months. This has been a costly and painful way to achieve that, but the bursting of the bubbles may be a more truthful reckoning of the smaller difference between rich and poor. A narrower gap will make for a healthier societal discourse in all kinds of issues, such as health care / health insurance reform.

6) Consumerism is far from dead, it’s just beginning around the world. Let’s hope it will be a new type of consumerism - conscientious consumerism - and let’s make it so.

7) The green revolution is finally taking hold among individuals, people are willing to take more personal responsibility for the effects their choices have on the rest of the world.

8) Contractors and freelancers and day traders are flexible, resourceful, and have much more information and resources at their fingertips than ever before. Many new entrepreneurs are in a ‘go for broke’ bid to develop and market their ideas. The freelance and consultant market is underreported, and freelancers don’t file for unemployment; they find other types of work. The freelance market is already seeing recovery, since companies will go to freelancers first before rehiring laid off workers.

9) Economic Darwinism - The fastest, strongest, most prepared & most adaptable are surviving.

10) Oil prices are moderate, helping transportation, manufacturing and global strategy.

11) (Bonus reason) Companies are not finding it fashionable to lay off workers, as was the case in 1987. Back then, layoffs were a brainless way to boost your stock price, at the cost of long term human capital.

For the toy industry:

1) If you don't buy a Wii, you have saved a couple hundred bucks, which you can use to buy a lot of cheaper toys to assuage your parental guilt. It happens.

2) Plastic prices are down, paper prices are down, and shipping prices are down, but consumers are still expecting high prices at retail, so companies and retailers have more breathing room.

3) Content is still king, and memory to hold content is still getting cheaper.

Tom Goddu, toy design consultant
Blazing Pencils LLC
www.blazingpencils.com