Richard Gottlieb

Things to watch for in 2008

I leave tomorrow for Hong Kong and am looking forward to working with my clients and sitting down with old friends (some of whom are my clients).  As importantly, I am there to check the pulse of the industry and get a sense of where we are headed in 2008.  Here is what I am watching for while in Hong Kong and throughout 2008:

1. How much are prices going to go up?  There are several variables that will effect this:    
   1. The recent increase in the value of the Yuan against the dollar.
   2. Continuing inflation in China.
   3. The added costs of more testing.
   4. The reduction in the number of factories and accordingly erosion in the ability of toy companies to negotiate effectively.
2. How big of a slow down will we see in moving goods to market?
   1. How much will the new safety regulations slow down the process of getting goods to market?
   2. What is the mood of the Chinese and American manufacturing communities as a result of this year’s recalls?  Will they be open or will they be cautious?  If they are cautious, will it slow down production as they understandably look to protect themselves from bad designs and bad ingredients?
3. What is the mood of toy retailers.  Will they be cautious in 2008 or will they support new toy trends and make aggressive purchases?
4. What is the mood of Western toy companies?  Are they optimistic and ready to take on risk or are they pessimistic and looking to cut back?   Product is always king so will we see a continuance of the trend towards great new technology based products?  The worst thing that could happen to the toy industry right now would be  for toy manufacturers and toy retailers to pull back.
   

Costs, time and mood; these will be just some of the things to watch for in 2008.

Posted by Richard Gottlieb on January 2, 2008 | Comments (0)