Richard Gottlieb

What’s Next: The end of toy traditional toy manufacturing?

I love to stimulate my brain by trying to get a first whiff of what may be coming down the road. I decided, last year, to begin sharing these whiffs with readers of my monthly ebulletin, What’s Next. In it, I showcase articles I have read that, to me, smack of what’s to come in toys.

It is such a popular feature that I have decided to incorporate the concept into my blog on a regular basis that I will also call “What’s Next.” So, here is the first one:

3D Printing and the end of traditional manufacturing

In what can only be described as a fascinating column by Lamont Wood in Computerworld, one learns that technology is in place to allow consumers to make their own toys at home. The article, entitled “3D printing: The next big thing? Prices are dropping and processes are improving” makes the case that, just as the Internet has disrupted if not decimated traditional business models in the music, newspaper and communications industries, it could do the same to the toy industry.

A fledgling technology currently used for creating prototypes could, in time, replace traditional plastics manufacturing. Kids will be able to, instead of buying an action figure or car, be able to buy a code and that extrude it at home. Seem farfetched? Take a look at what Wood has to say:

The idea goes like this: Today, information is readily available online and can be faithfully reproduced locally with laser or ink-jet printers. But tomorrow, many more descriptions of 3D objects may be available online, and consumers will be able to faithfully reproduce them using 3D printing, circumventing most stages of commerce.

The article goes on to quote Cathy Lewis, CEO of Desktop Factory, a company that is about to launch a $4,995 system that can be used at home. Here is what she has to say:

"I see the low-cost availability of 3D printing as having major implications," says Cathy Lewis, Desktop Factory's CEO. She anticipates the system being popular with schools and hopes it will promote the education of a new generation of US engineers.

"But the long-term vision is rapid manufacturing in the home," Lewis says. "You have the ability to create one-off products and customized toys. Instead of importing items by millions from China, transporting them to warehouses and then stores, where we drive to pick them up, you will download a legal file, for a legal fee, and print your own repair part. Our parts are durable enough to serve as end-user items."

She anticipates that the "cost of goods" to create a Desktop Factory unit will fall to US$500 by late 2011. "So in 2012, I should be able to sell it for US$1,000" . But she also wants to see more low-end software tools become available. She and others point to Google's SketchUp 3D design package, available as a free download, as an example of what would be needed. Lewis says the Desktop Factory unit may eventually have an interface for SketchUp files. (Professional 3D CAD tools can cost thousands of dollars.)

The editorial goes on to point out that the system has imperfections and that it is not as around the corner as Cathy Lewis might think. It is, however, probably around the corner two blocks down. In a world where everyone’s home is a factory, the question of whether to produce in China or not may just become a moot point.

Posted by Richard Gottlieb on April 2, 2008 | Comments (0)